The scenario is characterized by a Dominant China AND Open Asia at the same time. Find relevant references for each factor and use indicators to argue for the factors. If you don’t find a reference for the indicator you may skip the indicator.
Factor 1) Dependency to China as a key growth region (HIGH): GSK retains its presence and access to China, however with even less bargaining power and leverage as a Multinational Company “MNC”. GSK continues to enjoy revenue and market growth, but remains directly vulnerable and effectively in the hands of the Chinese regulator and CCP actions.
Factor 2) Dependency to Chinese Supply Value Chain, R&D and human capital (MEDIUM): limited partial diversification of API into India & ASEAN is made possible given China’s implicit threat of retaliation. Most or all of R&D and Chinese human talent remains based and deployed in the region, following China’s hegemon.
Factor 3) Dependency to China in terms of financial health (MEDIUM): Pharmerging markets, led by China, continue to sustain GSK revenue growth prospects. Cash generation continues supporting share prices, consolidation efforts and slow GSK financial deleveraging under 3x (Total Debt/Ebtida). JV with Pfizer in Consumer Healthcare remains operative in China, but faces increasing vulnerability and scrutiny from Chinese authorities. Margins are sub-optimal as the continued expansion in China and Asia is not optimized by cost supply arbitrages across the region. Resources for R&D and investments remain, with stable level of patents pipeline and patent cliff.
Selected indicators:
(i) new fines < $50m from activities in China, either from GSK or the Consumer Healthcare JV with Pfizer currently under audit scrutiny;
(ii) further IP theft event (like Renopharma) with no recognition from Chinese authorities;
(iii) direct or indirect impediments to diversify API, R&D or human talent away from China;
(iv) API supplies from Asia surpassing 15%, but not 20%;
(vi) GSK revenues from China continue to grow at historical rates and not deviating > 20% from 5 years CAGR;
